Autonomous Trucks Could Be Cheaper Than Human Drivers in U.S. by 2028
The per-mile cost to operate autonomous trucks in the U.S. could match that of trucks with human drivers as soon as 2028.
According to research from Kearney and the MIT Mobility Initiative, the cost to operate autonomous trucking in the U.S. sat around $4 a mile in 2026, compared to $2.50 a mile for human drivers, accounting for fuel use, employee benefits, insurance, and several other factors. However, autonomous trucking costs are expected to fall to $3.30 a mile in 2027, and then $2.60 the following year, while human-driven trucking costs could rise to $2.60 per mile next year, and $2.70 in 2028.
In Europe and the Middle East, the same cost crossover isn’t expected to occur until closer to 2030 and 2032 respectively, given that driver costs are substantially lower in both regions compared to the U.S.
“Since about 50% of a U.S. truck’s cost per mile goes to the driver, the United States has much more cost to remove,” Kearney explains. “Autonomy pays off first where drivers are expensive and in short supply.”
A separate report released by Goldman Sachs in May put forth a similar timeline, predicting that autonomous semi-trucks could be cheaper to operate than human-driven trucks by 2028.
The technology appears to be well on its way to that point too. U.S.-based autonomous trucking company Bot Auto conducted a trial earlier in 2026, where it successfully delivered the country’s first ever fully humanless commercial truckload, with CEO Xiaodi Hou estimating an all-in cost for the trip of under $2 a mile. In a separate case study involving an autonomous trucking trial between Fort Worth and Phoenix, Aurora estimated a per-mile cost of just $1.84.
However, concerns remain related to how safely autonomous trucks can navigate bad weather and unexpected road hazards, their vulnerability to cyberattacks, and the potential loss of jobs for human drivers. A March 2026 analysis from the U.S. Department of Transportation identified more than 90 potential cybersecurity threat scenarios in a model system that would allow human operators to remotely assist autonomous commercial vehicles.
And in August, Teamsters California sued the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles over rules allowing heavy-duty driverless trucks, arguing that regulators failed to adequately assess the risks to public safety and potential job losses.