Ocean Traffic Returns to Near-Normal through Red Sea

Almost all major carriers have resumed Asia-Europe routes through the Red Sea, and traffic via the Suez Canal is back to around two-thirds of its volume before hostilities in the region sent ships on detours around the Cape of Good Hope, according to global shipping software platform Freightos.

“It’s a significant return,” said Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, during November’s Global Freight Outlook market update on November 10, adding that he expects to see a full return of ocean-going traffic on this Asia-Europe route by early in 2026. The only remaining container carrier avoiding the Red Sea route is Israel-owned Zim, but its partner arrangement with MSC means it is effectively able to send cargo that way.

The return to shorter journeys, now avoiding the Cape – which adds 10-12 days to a typical Asia-Europe sailing – might have been expected to create congestion at ports, as the ships on shorter journeys caught up with those on longer passage, Levine said. But, he pointed out, because the return to the conventional route has been gradual, the congestion is not significant.

In mid-September, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced they would resume sailings through the Suez Canal for four joint container routes, despite continued threats and attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

Levine said the route certainly remained dangerous, but that “it seems to a large extent the Houthi’s focus has shifted to their conflict with the Saudis.” The Houthis appear to have established effective communication with other countries, assuring them that they are no longer targets and can rely on safe passage through the Red Sea, he said. 

“Maybe they’re seeking legitimacy as being able to determine who passes and who does not,” Levin said. “It shows that they’re in charge. Other nations appear to be taking their word that their conflict is with Saudi.” The last attack on a cargo vessel off the coast of Yemen was several weeks ago and, Levine speculated, the container carriers are motivated by high fuel costs and congestion. “It’s a lot more expensive to go around the Cape,” he said. “And things were backed up.”

More recently, Houthi militias do appear to have shifted their efforts toward missile and drone strikes deep within Saudi Arabia, making several strikes on the capital, Riyadh, including the airport.